From Johnny Millionaire (@TheRealBadLeroy):
Johnny, this is relatively simple, if you follow me here.
I’ve talked to enough people who feel like Sam Darnold’s market will land around where Baker Mayfield’s did last year when Mayfield signed a three-year, $100 million deal to stay in Tampa. You can round that up to $35 million per year, if you want. So if that’s his value, and the Minnesota Vikings may want to go under that, and the tag is at $40.24 million, then franchising Darnold would’ve done two things to Minnesota.
One, it would make it more difficult, not less, to do a deal at the team’s desired numbers, because Darnold would know he can just collect the $40.24 million, and a second tag would cost the team $48.204 million a year from now (at which point he’d either get that or go into free agency). Two, it would put that lump sum on the salary cap, which the Vikings would be able to do nothing about without his help.
Now, there’s risk involved with tagging Darnold. The Vikings lose control of the situation in doing so. They can ask Darnold to come back to them with any offer he gets, but the quarterback doesn’t owe them that at all. That said, the relationship there is good, so I’d imagine the sides will work together, and Darnold would give the Vikings that courtesy.
And if it doesn’t work out, I think they’ll still want some quarterback insurance. They love and believe in J.J. McCarthy. He played well enough in camp last year to at least raise, internally, the discussion on what starting him as a rookie would’ve looked like. Then, he got hurt. He had a clean-up procedure after the initial surgery. He lost four months of on-field development time and a bunch of weight in the process. So while they love him, it’s fair to ask whether they can bank on him as their quarterback in 2025.
Remember, this is a veteran team that won 14 games. This isn’t a rebuild. Part of Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s charge here is to make sure a team that’s near the top of the league has a locker room that knows it’s taken care of at the most important position. So if that guy ends up being McCarthy, then that’s an awesome, desirable result. If not, and Darnold’s not around, I’d imagine they’ll still find a guy like Daniel Jones to have on hand.
