It looked like we were on the verge of a massive week, sitting at 7-2 through the early afternoon games on Sunday before going 0-4 the rest of the day. Thankfully, the Texans came through for us on Monday Night Football to salvage a profitable Week 11 in the Road to 272 Bets.
Our mission is to get back in the green this season and this was a step in the right direction, going 8-6 for +1.17 units to bring our season-to-date record to 83-80-3 for -2.58 units.
Six teams are on BYE this week which means we have just 13 games to watch and bet on. It's time to lock in our bets.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
As always, I'll follow the rules and guidelines that I laid out before the opening week. It's time to dive into my best bet for every single Week 12 game.
NFL Week 12 Bets for Every GameSteelers vs. Browns Prediction
I don't believe the market is pricing the Browns correctly. Sure, their offense is marginally better with Jameis Winston at quarterback, but this team remains dead last in the NFL in Net Yards per Play this season at -1.4, 0.3 yards per play worse than the next worse team. Even with Winston as the quarterback, the offense has ranked 22nd in both EPA per play and success rate since he's taken over.
It's also time to stop thinking the Browns have a good defense. They're 20th in the league in opponent EPA per play and 27th in opponent yards per play. Their tackling has gotten worse as the season progressed, allowing Taysom Hill to look like the greatest football player to ever walk the earth last week.
The Steelers are the best coached team in the league and you have to play mistake-free football to beat them. Their defense will carry them to victory and their offense won't do anything to lose themselves the game. I'll lay the points with Pittsburgh on Thursday night.
Chiefs vs. Panthers Prediction
The Chiefs have been historically bad at covering spreads of over a touchdown in the Patrick Mahomes era. They're 12-16-2 against the spread in their last 30 games as a favorite of seven points or more, including failing to cover in three recent games against the Broncos, Buccaneers, and Raiders. With that being said, this is one of the rare times I'll bet on them to cover this massive spread.
Don't let the Carolina Panthers' two-game win streak fool you into thinking they have any redeeming qualities. Their offense ranks 30th in the NFL in EPA per play and their defense is 25th in opponent EPA per play. More importantly, their defense is 31st in opponent EPA on third down, which is a key stat when facing the Chiefs.
Kansas City thrives on third down. The Bills were able to match them on those plays in their meeting last week, which resulted in a Buffalo win, but Carolina has proved they're even worse on third down than others, giving me no faith they can hang with Kansas City.
I think the Chiefs run away with this one in their first dominant win since beating the Saints by 13 points on October.
Vikings vs. Bears Prediction
The Vikings offense has shown some red flags of late, which makes me nervous to lay points on them against a defense as strong as the Bears. Instead, I'm going to back the UNDER at 39.5. These two defenses have been two of the best in the NFL this season. The Vikings lead the league in opponent EPA per play and the Bears come in at seventh. They also rank first and eighth in respectively in success rate.
The Bears' biggest strength on defense is their red zone efficiency, keeping teams from scoring touchdowns on just 40.63% of red zone trips against them, the best mark in the NFL. If the Vikings are held to field goals instead of touchdowns, the UNDER has a great chance of cashing.
We all know by now the struggles the Bears offense has had this season, averaging just 4.5 yards per snap, the second-fewest in the league. The Vikings offense has also been trending in the wrong direction and now rank just 20th in EPA per play since Week 8.
All signs point to this being a defensive slug-fest.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction
There have been some significant signs of ongoing regression from the Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense, which has been on brand for Kliff Kingsbury run offenses throughout his coaching career. With that in mind, it's hard for me to justify betting the Commanders to cover a double-digit spread in Week 12.
Yes, the Cowboys have been bad, but give some credit to Cooper Rush for throwing for 354 yards against one of the best secondaries in the NFL in the Texans on Monday night. Also, the Commanders have one of the worst run defenses in the league so they may find success leaning on Rico Dowdle.
There's enough there to justify a bet on the Cowboys to cover this double-digit spread.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction
I think the spread is set at the correct number, so I'm going to look at betting on the total instead and I'll take the OVER 46.
The Dolphins offense has been one of the best in the NFL since Tua Tagovailoa's return four weeks ago, ranking third in the NFL in both EPA and success rate in that time frame. They have one of the most explosive and dynamic offenses in the league when Tua is healthy and the Patriots' defense, which ranks 28th in opponent EPA, doesn't lead me to believe we'll see Miami slowing down offensively this Sunday.
The Patriots offense may not be on the level of the Dolphins', but they've looked the best they have all season the past few weeks and Drake Maye has been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL this season. They have averaged 20.75 points per game over the last four weeks while playing against solid defenses in the Jets, Titans, Bears, and Rams. Another performance like that will be enough to contribute to this total going OVER.
Titans vs. Texans Prediction
I'm in too deep betting on the Titans this season to stop now. It's the same story every week with them, they look better than the final result is but weird things go against them at crucial times. Whether it's a phantom penalty to keep their opponent's drive alive, or a bad turnover deep in their own end, or a special teams mishap, this team has been on the wrong end of football variance too much this season.
With that being said, the Texans have had some major issues offensively that give me cause for concern when it comes to covering an eight-point spread. They've now fallen to 20th in the NFL in EPA per play and 30th in success rate.
In a divisional matchup, I'll take the Titans to cover the spread for just the second time this season.
Lions vs. Colts Prediction
The Lions have averaged 33.6 points per game this season, which may lead you to believe their 9-1 record is due to their offense, but I'd make the argument it's been their defense that has been more impressive. The Detroit defense ranks second in the NFL in opponent EPA per play and they're allowing just 17.7 points per game on the season.
A total should only be in the 50s if it's a game that features two teams whose offense is significantly better than their defenses and I simply don't think that's the case in this one. While the argument could be made for the Lions, it's been objectively true the Colts' defense has been far better than their offense. Their offense is 22nd in EPA per play but 11th in opponent EPA per play.
The Indianapolis defense isn't elite but they're above average in almost every metric and don't deserve to be in a game that has a total set in the 50s. I think an uncharacteristically slow game for the Lions offense is in the cards.
Buccaneers vs. Giants Prediction
You're a brave bettor if you're taking the Giants led by Tommy DeVito. I could have been convinced to take the Giants at this number if Drew Lock was getting the start, but with the Giants opting to go with DeVito, I'm going to back the Buccaneers.
Mike Evans returned to practice for the Bucs on Monday which is a huge positive for Tampa Bay, who is still very much alive in the race to win the NFC South. Tampa Bay just made it through a gauntlet of great teams and the last time we saw them play against a team with a below .500 record, they cruised past the Saints by a score of 51-27.
Their offense ranks seventh in the NFL in EPA per play and I simply don't think the Giants' offense can hang with them with DeVito at quarterback. The weakness of the Buccaneers' defense is their secondary and New York doesn't have the tools to take advantage of it.
Broncos vs. Raiders Prediction
This AFC West matchup will feature the worst offense in the NFL against arguably the best defense. The Raiders enter this game ranked dead last in the NFL in EPA per play and 29th in yards per play (4.7). Now they face a Broncos defense that's third in opponent EPA per play, fifth in opponent success rate, and first in opponent yards per play (4.6).
Unless the Broncos fail to get anything going offensively, I simply don't envision the Raiders staying in this game. I don't see that happening based on how much better the Broncos' offense has been of late, ranking 14th in EPA per play since Week 7. Bo Nix has been making a push for Offensive Rookie of the Year and the Broncos are starting to look like a legitimate playoff team.
I think it's best not to overthink this one. The Broncos are the play.
49ers vs. Packers Prediction
I may go down with the 49ers ship, but I still believe in this team. No other team has allowed more points in the final two minutes of their games than the 49ers, and they continue to pay the price for it. They're losing games despite largely outplaying their opponents. For example, they still rank second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.3, behind only the Ravens (+1.5).
I have some concerns about the Packers. They're winning games, but Jordan Love has regressed from his 2023 success. He currently ranks 15th in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite, behind the likes of Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Kirk Cousins. He's also 17th in success rate, showing he's just been an average quarterback in 2024, which may keep them from being able to put a team like the 49ers.
I'll back the 49ers to win this game outright as slight underdogs. I think the market has penalized the 49ers too much for being on the wrong end of variance.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Prediction
I'm ready to believe in the Cardinals. I had been staying away from betting on them this season due to their defense, but they've been playing significantly better on that side of the football of late. In fact, they're 11th in opponent EPA per play since Week 7. The Seahawks' defense has trended in the opposite direction and is 19th in that stat in the same time frame.
The Cardinals' offense has also been getting better as the season goes on. They're ninth overall for the full season in EPA per play but second in that stat since Week 7, behind only the Ravens. They've found success both throwing and running the ball in that stretch of games, ranking third in dropback EPA and fifth in rush EPA.
The Cardinals are second in the NFL in Net Yards Per Play (+2.1) in each team's last three games. It's time to invest some stock in this Arizona team. They're looking more and more like the team to beat in the NFC West and I think they'll prove that on Sunday.
Eagles vs. Rams Prediction
The Eagles and Rams have been extremely impressive on defense the past handful of weeks. Dating back to Week 6, they rank first and third in the NFL in opponent EPA per play and first and sixth in opponent success rate. The Eagles' secondary has been dominant, keeping teams to a league-leading 5.5 yards per pass attempt, while the Rams can thank their pass rush that ranks sixth in pressure rate.
I'm not as sold on the Rams offensively. Even though their healthy now, Matthew Stafford hasn't had his best stuff at times this season, ranking 21st in EPA+CPOE composite, and they've also struggled to score touchdowns. They have scored a touchdown on just 50% of red zone trips, the eighth-worst mark in the league.
A lot of their offensive issues have been caused by their run game. It's taken a huge step back this season as they've been averaging just 3.8 yards per rush, which ranks 30th in the NFL.
While your first impression about these two teams may be high-powered offenses, both teams have actually been more impressive on the defensive side of the ball. I'll take the UNDER on Sunday Night Football.
Ravens vs. Chargers Prediction
The Baltimore Ravens offense, when firing on all cylinders, is the best in the league. With that being said, they hurt themselves more than any other team. They lead the NFL in penalties this season with 92, 10 more than the next worse team. Their 763 penalty yards are also 74 more than the next closest team.
It's hard to not only win, but win with margin, when you're costing yourself that many yards a game.
If there's any team that can slow down the Ravens offense, it may just be the Chargers. Not only are they disciplined, committing the fourth fewest penalties at 53, but they're fourth in both opponent EPA and opponent success rate.
Then there's also the matter of Justin Herbert going up against the abysmal Ravens defense. The Ravens are 28th in opponent dropback EPA and 27th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2). Herbert may be poised for his best start of the season.
I'll take the points with Los Angeles at home.
