The Week 12 edition of the Player Prop Countdown suffered a heartbreaking finish. We were on the verge of a profitable 6-4 week until Matthew Stafford threw for 50+ yards on a final garbage-time drive against the Eagles to go over his passing yards total by one single yard.
As a result, we went 5-5 for -0.57 units on the week to bring our season-long Player Prop Countdown record to 58-61-1 for -3.43 units. The good news is we have plenty of football left to get back in the green and I intend on us having a great Thanksgiving week.
Let's dive into my top 10 player props for Week 13.
Player Prop Season-to-Date Record: 58-61-1 (-3.43 units)NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 1310) Travis Kelce UNDER 5.5 Receptions (+116)
After three games in the middle of the season where Travis Kelce had huge performances, teams have locked in on him again and instead, Patrick Mahomes has looked more toward their backup tight end, Noah Gray.
Teams lost sight of Kelce thinking he was washed up but once he proved he still has some fuel left in the tank, teams are back to taking him out of the game and forcing Kansas City to win the game elsewhere. I think the Raiders will do the same and keep him to five receptions or fewer.
9) Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-117)
DK Metcalf may be the most explosive receiver on the Seahawks roster, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has taken over Tyler Lockett's role as the most reliable pass-catcher and one that Geno Smith has turned to the most this season. JSN leads the team in targets (93), receptions (66), and receiving yards (755), averaging 68.6 receiving yards per game, well above his set total against the Jets.
The Jets rank 29th in opponent dropback EPA since firing Robert Saleh, which opens the door for opposing receivers like Smith-Njigba.
8) Lamar Jackson UNDER 225.5 Pass Yards (-115)
If the Ravens want to beat the Eagles, they'd be smart to stick to running the football. The Eagles lead the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up just 5.5 yards per throw. They're also second in both opponent dropback EPA and opponent dropback success rate since their Week 5 BYE.
The Ravens' game script, especially if they can grab an early lead, will likely be to stick to their run game and not force Jackson to throw the ball unless he has to.
7) Nico Collins Longest Reception OVER 27.5 Yards (-110)
The Jaguars have allowed 52 passing plays of 20+ yards and nine passing plays of 40+ yards, both of which are the worst marks in the NFL. Meanwhile, Nico Collins has had a reception of at least 28 yards in all but one game this season.
With those two factors in mind, this bet seems like a no-brainer.
6) Jayden Daniels UNDER 217.5 Pass Yards (-115)
For the same reason that I've been betting against the Commanders of late, I'm also going to take the UNDER on Jayden Daniels' pass yards. Kliff Kingsbury's offenses throughout his coaching career have thrived in the first half of seasons and then fell off a cliff in the second half and we're seeing the same thing with Washington. Daniels threw for 209 yards or fewer in three games leading up to the Cowboys game and then was on pace to go UNDER 200 yards again before a late flurry of big throws brought him up to 275 yards on the day.
Now, Daniels and the Commanders' offense has to face a Titans defense that's allowing just 169.6 passing yards per game, the fewest in the NFL. Whether it's a positive game script that allows the Commanders to stick to running the ball, or another week of struggling to find momentum through the air, I think we're going to see him fail to reach 218 yards on Sunday.
5) Quentin Johnston Anytime Touchdown (+250)
I'm going to bet on a bounce-back game from Quention Johnston after he was the talk of Monday night by dropping three passes, one of which could've been a game-changer on a key third down. He and the Chargers get to face a Falcons defense that's dead last in opponent completion percentage.
Mike Hughes of the Falcons is also on the injury report, meaning if A.J. Terrell covers Ladd McConkey, Johnston is going to have a favorable matchup against a backup cornerback on the other side of the field.
Johnston already has six touchdowns on the season. I'm surprised he's available at +250 odds to score a seventh against a secondary in as poor of shape as the Falcons.
4) Tyrone Tracy Jr. OVER 63.5 Rush Yards (-110)
This game features two of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so we're going to back each team's running backs, starting with Tyrone Tracy Jr. of the Giants. He's having a fantastic rookie season, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Now he gets to face a Cowboys defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry while ranking dead last in opponent rush EPA.
Tracy Jr. is poised for a massive performance on Thursday.
3) Saquon Barkley UNDER 91.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Saquon Barkley is the talk of the town this week, entering the MVP conversation after a dominant performance against the Rams on Sunday Night Football. With that being said, I'm going to sell high on the Eagles running back as he gets ready to face a dominant Ravens run defense.
Baltimore's secondary has a ton of issues, but they've been solid against the run all season. They allow just 3.5 yards per carry, the fewest in the NFL, while also ranking second in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate.
91.5 is a high rushing total for any running back, let alone one facing an elite run defense like the Ravens.
2) Jaylen Warren OVER 38.5 Rush Yards (-114)
Could Jaylen Warren be taking over the primary role at running back? He played 57% of snaps last week against the Browns while Najee Harris played just 39%. He has also been the more effective back by a slight margin, averaging 4.04 yards per carry compared to Harris at 3.92.
Regardless of how many touches he gets, he should be able to have a huge day against the Bengals. Cincinnati ranks 30th in opponent rush EPA and 31st in opponent rush success rate, setting up a big day for opposing running backs.
1) Justin Herbert OVER 21.5 Completions (+100)
Opposing quarterbacks are completing 71.62% of passes against the Falcons, which is the worst mark in the entire NFL. To make matters worse, Two cornerbacks in Mike Hughes and Dee Alford are questionable for Sunday's game against the Chargers, setting Justin Herbert up to have a huge game against them.
The Chargers have increased Herbert's workload the past few weeks, asking him to throw the ball 38 teams in each of the past two games. If he throws the ball a similar amount against the Falcons on Sunday, he's going to soar over 21.5 completions. I love this bet at plus-money.
