Second Quarter: Who Can Really Win National Titles?
In the olden days—like, 2021—there were about 15 programs that were generally considered to have what it takes to win a national championship. Even that number was generous, including a few schools in talent-rich locations that hadn’t done it in a long time. Or maybe ever.
Today, with NIL and the transfer portal and wider playoff access, there is more upward (and downward) mobility. Just about all things are possible. Indiana (11) is the exemplar of that, rocketing from the losingest program in FBS history to a playoff appearance last year to No. 3 in the land halfway through this season.
Whether it’s sustainable everywhere depends on long-term booster commitment to funding a roster, and the ability to find and retain elite coaches. But anyone with power-conference membership should be able to envision a run. It’s possible.
But some places should be more sustainable than others. The four longest-lasting national championship droughts at places that have had reasonable expectations of winning it all:
Oregon (12)
Last title: Never. In historical terms, the Ducks are a recent addition to this list. The program was bad for most of its first century of existence before Rich Brooks (and Phil Knight) breathed life into it in the 1990s. The ramp-up has been swift and sustained this century, with only two losing seasons and 14 years of double-digit wins.
Oregon doesn’t have what most older blueblood programs have, which is proximity to massive amounts of talent. But the Ducks have basically annexed California as their recruiting backyard while using Nike’s brand cachet (and cash) to broaden their reach nationally.
Oregon has played in two championship games in its history, the BCS in 2010 and the first CFP in ’14. It has come close a few other times, often finding a banana peel to slip on in November. Last year’s team was the undefeated No. 1 playoff seed, only to be routed by Ohio State in the Rose Bowl quarterfinals.
Texas A&M (13)
Last title: 1939. In terms of natties, this is the all-time underachiever program in college football—sitting in rich recruiting territory, with a vast and loyal fan base capable of putting more than 100,000 fans in the stands at home games, and enough money to pay a coach who isn’t winning enough $76 million to go away.
The mystifying thing about the Aggies is not just that they haven’t won a national title in 86 years; it’s that they’ve rarely come close. Texas A&M finished fourth in the AP poll in the pandemic season of 2020 and was a mildly controversial exclusion from the playoff—but the program has never played in the SEC championship game (fellow 2012 arrival Missouri has done so twice). A&M won the Big 12 only once (in 1998), though it did win the Southwest Conference three times in the early 1990s and three times in the ’80s. The 1992 team was 12–0 before being squashed by Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl, 28–3.
Prior to that, you have to go back to the 1956 team, which went 9–0–1 under a rising coach named Bear Bryant. Those Aggies finished No. 5 in the AP rankings.
Could this year’s team have what it takes? The current Aggies are 6–0 and ranked fourth in the nation. But four of the final six games are on the road, and three are against ranked opponents. Tough sledding from here.
Penn State
Last title: 1986. Since the Nittany Lions upset Miami in the Fiesta Bowl to win it all in ’86, 19 other programs have been crowned champions—a group that includes Colorado, Georgia Tech, Washington and Tennessee. They were probably screwed out of a share of a title in ’94, and they’ve won a ton of games over the decades. But they’ve avoided winning it all, and so far this year they’ve avoided winning any games that matter.
Still, this is a program that should attract an elite candidate pool to replace James Franklin.
Notre Dame (14)
Last title: 1988. Fighting Irish fans will argue that the 1993 team was robbed by the pollsters, and they have a point. Notre Dame beat Florida State, then was upset by Boston College and supplanted at No. 1 by the Seminoles. Florida State won the title despite a head-to-head loss to the No. 2 team.
As the sport changed over the previous 35 years, the Fighting Irish didn’t always keep up. From the admissions office to facilities to coaching hires, there were reasons why Notre Dame failed to return to elite status. That has gradually changed, and the Irish seem to lack nothing now in terms of championship buy-in. That showed in the run to the championship game last year.
