College football’s rivalry week is here and several games that always mean a little extra have even higher stakes considering the playoff implications.
No game is bigger than Saturday’s showdown between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan. The winner essentially clinches a spot in the College Football Playoff, assuming a win in the Big Ten title game the following week, and delivers a crushing blow to their rival. No. 6 Oregon is on the cusp of a playoff spot and has to hold off No. 17 Oregon State to stay in the hunt for a final four spot.
There’s a handful of other rivalry games that could play a factor in the committee’s final rankings: No. 7 Texas Tech hosts Texas Tech, No. 5 Florida State looks to stay undefeated on the road against Florida, No. 8 Alabama is in Auburn for the Iron Bowl, No. 4 Washington gets Washington State at home and No. 1 Georgia can add to its record-setting winning streak Saturday against Georgia Tech.
This holiday weekend is loaded with phenomenal football games, but our focus is on Ann Arbor, where the Wolverines host the Buckeyes, and Eugene, where the Ducks face the Beavers for the final time as a member of the Pac-12.
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Michigan
Spread: Ohio State +3.5 (-120) | Michigan -3.5 (-105)
Moneyline: OSU (+145) | MICH (-188)
Total: 45.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Saturday, Nov. 25 | 12 p.m. ET | FOX
Location: Michigan Stadium | Ann Arbor, MI
The Game is the most important college football game of the year to date. It’s the unbeaten Buckeyes (11–0, 8–0 Big Ten) against the unbeaten Wolverines (11–0, 8–0 Big Ten). The winner advances to the conference title game in Indianapolis, where No. 17 Iowa awaits. Win there and you’re back in the College Football Playoff. Lose on Saturday and there are very few avenues to the final four.
Michigan, of course, has been the talk of the sport for months as a sign-stealing scandal hangs over the program. Coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended three games by the Big Ten, linebackers coach Chris Partridge was fired and analyst Conor Stallions, who was at the center of the NCAA investigation, resigned.
All the while, the Wolverines have kept on winning. They’ve had some close calls with Sherrone Moore on the sidelines in Harbaugh’s place — a 24–15 win at No. 11 Penn State and a 31–24 victory on the road over Maryland in the last two weeks.
Michigan boasts the No. 1 scoring defense in the FBS, allowing just nine points per game, but its three worst performances have all come in November. The offense has also stalled, posting a season-low point total against the Nittany Lions in a game that saw J.J. McCarthy throw for 60 yards on just eight attempts. He also threw his first interception since September the next week against the Terrapins. Blake Corum hasn’t slowed down at all — he leads the country with 20 rushing touchdowns and had his best game of the year against Penn State when the Wolverines abandoned the pass in the second half.
The next-best scoring defense in the country is Ohio State, which allows just 9.3 points per game. The Buckeyes’ passed their biggest tests to date against the Nittany Lions and Notre Dame earlier in the season, though they’ve hardly been challenged in November. Kyle McCord had his best game of the year two weeks ago in a 38–3 win over Michigan State in a game in which Marvin Harrison Jr. accounted for three touchdowns. TreVeyon Henderson is also playing his best ball of the year and he has 100-plus rushing yards in three of four games since returning from injury.
It’s been all Michigan in the last two installments of this rivalry. From 2012-2019, Ohio State won every meeting. The two teams did not play in the 2020 COVID-19 season; then the Wolverines rolled 42–27 in Ann Arbor in 2021 and 45–23 in 2022 in Columbus. Saturday will mark the first time since 2018 the Wolverines are favored to beat the Buckeyes.
Ohio State, a rare underdog, has performed much better against the spread this season with a 7–3–1 mark compared to Michigan’s 5–5–1 record. However, instead of handicapping this heated rivalry between two of the top teams in the nation, let’s turn our attention to the total. Yes, these are the two best defenses in college football, but the Buckeyes average 33.6 points per game and the Wolverines are good for 38.3. What’s more, at least 50 points have been scored in the last nine meetings and the last two saw these teams combine for well over 60. The offensive talent on both rosters will win out and the over will hit once again at The Big House.
Best Bet: Over 45.5 (-110)
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