The selection committee’s work is in the books, and it’s finally time for the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament to get underway. With the entire field finally set after a thrilling regular season, we’re on the verge of seeing which teams have a date with Cinderella, who is about to bust your bracket and which coaches have every right to start complaining about their seed.
Who will make it out of Indianapolis with an eye on cutting down the nets in San Antonio this year? Here’s a breakdown of the Midwest Regional.
State of the No. 1 Seed: Houston Cougars
Houston lost three games in November (two in overtime) and has lost just once in over three months since. Some of that can be attributed to a brutal early-season schedule, but much of it is an illustration of just how good the Cougars have been of late. They dominated a Big 12 known for its parity and competitiveness, going 19–1 with the only loss in overtime to the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The biggest needle-mover of late has been the play of point guard Milos Uzan, a transfer from Oklahoma who has played the position at an extremely high level. In the second half of the season, Uzan is averaging over 14 points per game, taking care of the ball and shooting a blistering 49% from three. With Uzan, L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp, the Cougars have one of the best backcourts in the country.
Toughest Draw: Houston Cougars
Houston may not mind its potential second-weekend draw, but the Cougars do feel vulnerable as a potential second-round upset candidate given potential matchups with the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Georgia Bulldogs. By efficiency metrics, Gonzaga is by far the best No. 8 seed in the field. And even if Mark Few’s team gets upset in the first round by Georgia, facing the SEC squad won’t be an easy endeavor. Point guard Silas Demary Jr. has been phenomenal of late and Mike White’s team has the frontcourt size to match Houston’s dominant rebounding margin.
Team That Could Bust Your Bracket: No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs
The current ninth-best team in the country per KenPom getting a No. 8 seed demonstrates the dichotomy between Gonzaga’s efficiency metrics this season and the actual résumé at hand. The Bulldogs faltered in several of their biggest games on the schedule this season, though all eight losses were by single digits, including three in overtime. It feels like Few’s team has turned a corner lately though, breaking through against the Saint Mary’s Gaels in the WCC tournament for its best win of the season. This is one of the oldest teams in the country with a star point guard in Ryan Nembhard and tons of size up front, and they’re coached by a guy in Few who last missed the second weekend during the Obama administration. Don’t be surprised if this is when they finally put it all together.
Once a Final Four hero with the San Diego State Aztecs for his game-winning shot against the FAU Owls, Butler now gets his last dance at Kentucky with aspirations of yet another deep run. Kentucky is a different team with Butler on the floor: He’s essential to their defensive game plan because of his ability to guard the ball, but his ability to set the table for others and generate paint touches is also massive. Butler has been dealing with a nagging shoulder injury that caused him to miss Saturday’s SEC tournament semifinal game against the Alabama Crimson Tide but hopes to be healthy enough to play in the Big Dance. Kentucky’s hopes of an extended stay may depend on his ability to get and stay on the floor.
Most Intriguing Matchup: No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 13 High Point Panthers
This one has prime upset potential. For as good as Purdue’s two star players in Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn are, the Boilermakers are vulnerable because of a suspect defense that really struggles to defend the rim and deal with athleticism. That’s a frightening thought against a High Point team with dynamic guards who are elite at attacking the basket. The Panthers are a top-15 two-point offense in America, with guards Kezza Giffa and Bobby Pettiford in particular great at getting to the rim and finishing. Plus, High Point has a pair of athletic frontcourt players in Kimani Hamilton and Juslin Bodo Bodo capable of slowing down Kaufman-Renn and protecting the rim.
Regional Finalists: No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Houston has had an incredible season, but Gonzaga extends its second weekend streak to 10 straight tournaments with a second-round upset of the Cougars. On the bottom of the bracket, the Vols’ path is manageable with matchups against either the UCLA Bruins or Utah State Aggies in the second round and then potential Sweet 16 showdowns with a pair of enigmatic squads in the Illinois Fighting Illini and Kentucky.
Pick to Win the Region: Tennessee Volunteers
Things open up nicely for Tennessee to make a run here, and the Vols are as battle-tested as anyone after surviving the grind of the SEC this season. The combination of elite defense and high-level guard play with Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler is a potent one in March. Tennessee has never gone to the Final Four before but has been knocking on the door for a long time; this is the year the Vols break through.
Best Bet: Purdue vs. High Point (OVER 153.5)
This game could be the highest scoring game of the first round with High Point’s rim running offense providing a huge matchup issue for the Boilermakers' leaky interior defense.
The Panthers are riding the second-longest winning streak in the country and present an elite offense that is 15th in the country in two-point percentage with the likes of Kezza Giffa and Kimani Hamilton providing isolation threats to beat defenders off the dribble.
Purdue has had to adjust its defense this season to trap more along the perimeter and create turnovers—it was second in Big Ten play in turnover rate, up about three percent from nonconference action.
However, the Boilermakers have done that at the cost of their interior defense. Over the last month, the team has the second worst two-point field goal percentage allowed, according to Bart Torvik.
High Point should have plenty of answers on offense, but the Boilermakers will also have plenty of edges on offense, who will torch the Panthers defense with its lethal two-man game between guard Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn.
I like the over in this one as both offenses should feast in the halfcourt against one another.
